Metabolomic Association and Risk Prediction With Heart Failure in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Older adults have markedly increased risks of heart failure (HF), specifically HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Identifying novel biomarkers can help in understanding HF pathogenesis and improve at-risk population identification. This study aimed to identify metabolites associated with incident HF, HFpEF, and HF with reduced ejection fraction and examine risk prediction in older adults. METHODS: Untargeted metabolomic profiling was performed in Black and White adults from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) visit 5 (n=3719; mean age, 75 years). We applied Cox regressions to identify metabolites associated with incident HF and its subtypes. The metabolite risk score (MRS) was constructed and examined for associations with HF, echocardiographic measures, and HF risk prediction. Independent samples from visit 3 (n=1929; mean age, 58 years) were used for replication. RESULTS: Sixty metabolites (hazard ratios range, 0.79-1.49; false discovery rate, <0.05) were associated with incident HF after adjusting for clinical risk factors, eGFR, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide). Mannonate, a hydroxy acid, was replicated (hazard ratio, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.19-1.56]) with full adjustments. MRS was associated with an 80% increased risk of HF per SD increment, and the highest MRS quartile had 8.7× the risk of developing HFpEF than the lowest quartile. High MRS was also associated with unfavorable values of cardiac structure and function. Adding MRS over clinical risk factors and NT-proBNP improved 5-year HF risk prediction C statistics from 0.817 to 0.850 (∆C, 0.033 [95% CI, 0.017-0.047]). The association between MRS and incident HF was replicated after accounting for clinical risk factors (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Novel metabolites associated with HF risk were identified, elucidating disease pathways, specifically HFpEF. An MRS was associated with HF risk and improved 5-year risk prediction in older adults, which may assist at at-risk population identification.

Clinical implications of subclinical left ventricular dysfunction in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: The PARAGON-HF study.

AIMS: Left ventricular (LV) subclinical impairment has been described in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). We assessed the relationship between LV myocardial deformation by strain imaging and recurrent hospitalization for heart failure (HF) or cardiovascular death in a large international HFpEF population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We assessed two-dimensional speckle-tracking based global longitudinal strain (GLS) in 790 patients (mean age 74 ± 8 years, 54% female) with adequate image quality enrolled in the PARAGON-HF echocardiography study. We examined the relationship of GLS with total HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death (the primary composite outcome) after accounting for clinical confounders. Approximately 47% of the population had evidence of LV subclinical dysfunction, defined as absolute GLS <16%. Impaired GLS was significantly associated with higher values of circulating baseline N-terminal pro-B-type-natriuretic peptide. After a median follow-up of 3.0 years, there were 407 total HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular deaths. After multivariable adjustment, worse GLS was associated with a greater risk for the primary composite outcome (adjusted hazard ratio per 1% decrease: 1.06; 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.11; p = 0.008). GLS did not modify the treatment effect of sacubitril/valsartan compared with valsartan for the composite outcome (p for interaction >0.1). CONCLUSIONS: In a large HFpEF population, impaired LV function was observed even among patients with preserved ejection fraction, and was associated with an increased risk of total HF hospitalizations or cardiovascular death, accounting for clinical confounders. These findings highlight the key role of subtle LV systolic impairment in the pathophysiology of HFpEF.

A polygenic risk score of atrial fibrillation improves prediction of lifetime risk for heart failure.

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) has shared genetic architecture with its risk factors: atrial fibrillation (AF), body mass index (BMI), coronary heart disease (CHD), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aim to assess the association and risk prediction performance of risk-factor polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for incident HF and its subtypes in bi-racial populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: Five PRSs were constructed for AF, BMI, CHD, SBP, and T2D in White participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The associations between PRSs and incident HF and its subtypes were assessed using Cox models, and the risk prediction performance of PRSs was assessed using C statistics. Replication was performed in the ARIC study Black and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) White participants. In 8624 ARIC study Whites, 1922 (31% cumulative incidence) HF cases developed over 30 years of follow-up. PRSs of AF, BMI, and CHD were associated with incident HF (P < 0.001), where PRSAF showed the strongest association [hazard ratio (HR): 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.41-1.53]. Only the addition of PRSAF to the ARIC study HF risk equation improved C statistics for 10 year risk prediction from 0.812 to 0.829 (∆C: 0.017, 95% CI: 0.009-0.026). The PRSAF was associated with both incident HF with reduced ejection fraction (HR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.27-1.60) and incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.33-1.62). The associations between PRSAF and incident HF and its subtypes, as well as the improved risk prediction, were replicated in the ARIC study Blacks and the CHS Whites (P < 0.050). Protein analyses revealed that N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and other 98 proteins were associated with PRSAF. CONCLUSIONS: The PRSAF was associated with incident HF and its subtypes and had significant incremental value over an established HF risk prediction equation.

Large-Scale Proteomics Identifies Novel Biomarkers and Circulating Risk Factors for Aortic Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist regarding risk factors for aortic stenosis (AS). The plasma proteome is a promising phenotype for discovery of novel biomarkers and potentially causative mechanisms. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to discover novel biomarkers with potentially causal associations with AS. METHODS: We measured 4,877 plasma proteins (SomaScan aptamer-affinity assay) among ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study participants in mid-life (visit 3 [V3]; n = 11,430; age 60 ± 6 years) and in late-life (V5; n = 4,899; age 76 ± 5 years). We identified proteins cross-sectionally associated with aortic valve (AV) peak velocity (AVmax) and dimensionless index by echocardiography at V5 and with incident AV-related hospitalization after V3 with the use of multivariable linear and Cox proportional hazard regression. We assessed associations of candidate proteins with changes in AVmax over 6 years and with AV calcification with the use of cardiac computed tomography, replicated analysis in an independent sample, performed Mendelian randomization, and evaluated gene expression in explanted human AV tissue. RESULTS: Fifty-two proteins cross-sectionally were associated with AVmax and dimensionless index at V5 and with risk of incident AV-related hospitalization after V3. Among 3,413 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, 6 of those proteins were significantly associated with adjudicated moderate or severe AS, including matrix metalloproteinase 12 (MMP12), complement C1q tumor necrosis factor-related protein 1 (C1QTNF1), and growth differentiation factor-15. MMP12 was also associated with greater increase in AVmax over 6 years, greater degree of AV calcification, and greater expression in calcific compared with normal or fibrotic AV tissue. C1QTNF1 had consistent potential causal effects on both AS and AVmax according to Mendelian randomization analysis. CONCLUSIONS: These findings identify MMP12 as a potential novel circulating biomarker of AS risk and C1QTNF1 as a new putative target to prevent AS progression.

Identification of Fatigue Subtypes and Their Correlates in Prevalent Heart Failure: A Secondary Analysis of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with heart failure (HF), fatigue is common and linked to quality of life and functional status. Fatigue is hypothesized to manifest as multiple types, with general and exertional components. Unique subtypes of fatigue in HF may require differential assessment and treatment to improve outcomes. We conducted this study to identify fatigue subtypes in persons with prevalent HF in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) and describe the distribution of characteristics across subtypes. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 1065 participants with prevalent HF at ARIC visit 5 (2011-2013). We measured exertional fatigue using the Modified Medical Research Council Breathlessness scale and general fatigue using the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System fatigue scale. We used latent class analysis to identify subtypes of fatigue. Number of classes was determined using model fit statistics, and classes were interpreted and assigned fatigue severity rating based on the conditional probability of endorsing survey items given class. We compared characteristics across classes using multinomial regression. RESULTS: Overall, participants were 54% female and 38% Black with a mean age of 77. We identified 4 latent classes (fatigue subtypes): (1) high general/high exertional fatigue (18%), (2) high general/low exertional fatigue (27%), (3) moderate general/moderate exertional fatigue (20%), and (4) low/no general and exertional fatigue (35%). Female sex, Black race, lower education level, higher body mass index, increased depressive symptoms, and higher prevalence of diabetes were associated with higher levels of general and exertional fatigue. CONCLUSIONS: We identified unique subtypes of fatigue in patients with HF who have not been previously described. Within subtype, general and exertional fatigue were mostly concordant in severity, and exertional fatigue only occurred in conjunction with general fatigue, not alone. Further understanding these fatigue types and their relationships to outcomes may enhance our understanding of the symptom experience and inform prognostication and secondary prevention efforts for persons with HF.

Large scale plasma proteomics identifies novel proteins and protein networks associated with heart failure development.

Heart failure (HF) causes substantial morbidity and mortality but its pathobiology is incompletely understood. The proteome is a promising intermediate phenotype for discovery of novel mechanisms. We measured 4877 plasma proteins in 13,900 HF-free individuals across three analysis sets with diverse age, geography, and HF ascertainment to identify circulating proteins and protein networks associated with HF development. Parallel analyses in Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants in mid-life and late-life and in Trøndelag Health Study participants identified 37 proteins consistently associated with incident HF independent of traditional risk factors. Mendelian randomization supported causal effects of 10 on HF, HF risk factors, or left ventricular size and function, including matricellular (e.g. SPON1, MFAP4), senescence-associated (FSTL3, IGFBP7), and inflammatory (SVEP1, CCL15, ITIH3) proteins. Protein co-regulation network analyses identified 5 modules associated with HF risk, two of which were influenced by genetic variants that implicated trans hotspots within the VTN and CFH genes.

Clonal Hematopoiesis and Incident Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

Importance: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the age-related clonal expansion of hematopoietic stem cells with leukemogenic acquired genetic variants, is associated with incident heart failure (HF). Objective: To evaluate the associations of CHIP and key gene-specific CHIP subtypes with incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study included participants from 2 racially diverse prospective cohort studies with uniform HF subtype adjudication: the Jackson Heart Study (JHS) and Women's Health Initiative (WHI). JHS participants were enrolled during 2000 to 2004 and followed up through 2016. WHI participants were enrolled during 1993 to 1998 and followed up through 2022. Participants who underwent whole-genome sequencing, lacked prevalent HF at baseline, and were followed up for HF adjudication were included. Follow-up occurred over a median (IQR) of 12.0 (11.0-12.0) years in the JHS and 15.3 (9.0-22.0) years in the WHI. Statistical analysis was performed from June to December 2023. Exposures: Any CHIP and the most common gene-specific CHIP subtypes (DNMT3A and TET2 CHIP). Main Outcomes and Measures: First incident hospitalized HF events were adjudicated from hospital records and classified as HFpEF (left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50%) or HFrEF (ejection fraction <50%). Results: A total of 8090 participants were included; 2927 from the JHS (median [IQR] age, 56 [46-65] years; 1846 [63.1%] female; 2927 [100.0%] Black or African American) and 5163 from the WHI (median [IQR] age, 67 [62-72] years; 5163 [100.0%] female; 29 [0.6%] American Indian or Alaska Native, 37 [0.7%] Asian or Pacific Islander, 1383 [26.8%] Black or African American, 293 [5.7%] Hispanic or Latinx, 3407 [66.0%] non-Hispanic White, and 14 [0.3%] with other race and ethnicity). The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for composite CHIP and HFpEF was 1.28 (95% CI, 0.93-1.76; P = .13), and for CHIP and HFrEF it was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.49-1.25; P = .31). TET2 CHIP was associated with HFpEF in both cohorts (meta-analyzed HR, 2.35 [95% CI, 1.34 to 4.11]; P = .003) independent of cardiovascular risk factors and coronary artery disease. Analyses stratified by C-reactive protein (CRP) in the WHI found an increased risk of incident HFpEF in individuals with CHIP and CRP greater than or equal to 2 mg/L (HR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.20-3.15]; P = .007), but not in those with CHIP and CRP less than 2 mg/L or those with CRP greater than or equal to 2 mg/L without CHIP, when compared with participants without CHIP and CRP less than 2 mg/L. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, TET2 CHIP was an independent risk factor associated with incident HFpEF. This finding may have implications for the prevention and management of HFpEF, including development of targeted therapies.

Plasma Ferritin Levels, Incident Heart Failure, and Cardiac Structure and Function: The ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Whether iron deficiency contributes to incident heart failure (HF) and cardiac dysfunction has important implications given the prevalence of iron deficiency and the availability of several therapeutics for iron repletion. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to estimate the associations of plasma ferritin level with incident HF overall, HF phenotypes, and cardiac structure and function measures in older adults. METHODS: Participants in the ongoing, longitudinal ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study who were free of prevalent HF and anemia were studied. The associations of plasma ferritin levels with incident HF overall and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Linear regression models estimated the cross-sectional associations of plasma ferritin with echocardiographic measures of cardiac structure and function. RESULTS: The cohort included 3,472 individuals with a mean age of 75 ± 5 years (56% women, 14% Black individuals). In fully adjusted models, lower ferritin was associated with higher risk for incident HF overall (HR: 1.20 [95% CI: 1.08-1.34] per 50% lower ferritin level) and higher risk for incident HFpEF (HR: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.09-1.50]). Associations with incident HFrEF were not statistically significant. Lower ferritin levels were associated with higher E/e' ratio and higher pulmonary artery systolic pressure after adjustment for demographics and HF risk factors but not with measures of left ventricular structure or systolic function. CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults without prevalent HF or anemia, lower plasma ferritin level is associated with a higher risk for incident HF, HFpEF, and higher measures of left ventricular filling pressure.

The Relationship of Neighborhood Disadvantage, Biological Aging, and Psychosocial Risk and Resilience Factors in Heart Failure Incidence Among Black Persons: A Moderated Mediation Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Deprived living environments contribute to greater heart failure (HF) risk among non-Hispanic Black persons, who disproportionately occupy disadvantaged neighborhoods. The mechanisms for these effects are not fully explicated, partially attributable to an insufficient understanding of the individual factors that contribute additional risk or resilience to the impact of neighborhood disadvantage on health. The objective of this study was, therefore, to clarify the complex pathways over which such exposures act to facilitate more targeted, effective interventions. Given the evidence for a mediating role of biological age and a moderating role of individual psychosocial characteristics in the neighborhood disadvantage-HF link, we tested a moderated mediation mechanism. METHODS: Using multilevel causal moderated mediation models, we prospectively examined whether the association of neighborhood disadvantage with incident HF mediated through accelerated biological aging, captured by the GrimAge epigenetic clock, is moderated by hypothesized psychosocial risk (negative affect) and resilience (optimism) factors. RESULTS: Among a sample of 1,448 Black participants in the shared Jackson Heart Study-Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort (mean age 64.3 years), 334 adjudicated incident hospitalized HF events occurred over a median follow-up of 18 years. In models adjusted for age and sex, the indirect (GrimAge-mediated) effect of neighborhood disadvantage was moderated by psychosocial risk such that for every standard deviation increase in negative affect the hazards of HF was 1.18 (95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.36). No moderated mediation effect was detected for optimism. DISCUSSION: Findings support the necessity for multilevel interventions simultaneously addressing neighborhood and individual psychosocial risk in the reduction of HF among Black persons.

Association of diabetes and glycemic control with left atrial function: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although glycemic status is associated with impaired cardiac structure and function, less is known on left atrial (LA) function across the glycemic spectrum. We evaluated the association of diabetes and glycemic control with LA function in a community-based cohort of older adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: This cross-sectional analysis included 5075 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (mean age 75.5 years, 58 % women, and 20 % Black adults) with echocardiographic strain data for LA reservoir, conduit, and contractile function. Multivariable linear regression was used to assess associations of diabetes status and glycemic control with LA function. In participants without diabetes, we used ordinal linear regression to evaluate associations of fasting glucose and HbA1c with LA function. Compared to individuals with a normal fasting glucose, prevalent diabetes was associated with 0.68 % lower LA conduit function (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.11 to -0.25) and prediabetes a 0.47 % reduction (95 % CI: 0.85 to -0.09) in fully adjusted analyses. Persons with diabetes and high HbA1c (HgbA1c ≥ 7 % vs <7 %) had 1.05 % lower LA conduit function (95 % CI: 1.63, -0.48). Among individuals without diagnosed diabetes, higher fasting glucose, but not HbA1c, was significantly associated with worse LA conduit function. No significant associations were observed for LA reservoir and contractile function. CONCLUSIONS: A history of diabetes, prediabetes, and higher fasting glucose levels in persons without diabetes were associated with worse LA conduit function. Corroborative research is needed in prospective cohorts as well as studies that explore underlying mechanisms.

Changes in Pulmonary Artery Pressure Late in Life: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

BACKGROUND: Although the prognostic implications of higher pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) are well established, few data exist regarding longitudinal change in pulmonary pressure in late life. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to quantify changes in PASP over 6 years and determine the relative contributions of cardiac and pulmonary dysfunction. METHODS: Among 1,420 participants in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study with echocardiographic measures of PASP at both the fifth (2011-2013) and seventh (2018-2019) visits, longitudinal changes in PASP over about 6.5 years were quantified. Multivariable regression was used to determine the extent to which cardiac and pulmonary dysfunction were associated with changes in PASP and to define the relationship of changes in PASP with dyspnea development. RESULTS: The mean age was 75 ± 5 years at visit 5 and 81 ± 5 years at visit 7, 24% of subjects were Black adults, and 68% were women. Over the 6.5 years, PASP increased by 5 ± 8 mm Hg, from 28 ± 5 to 33 ± 8 mm Hg. PASP increased more in older participants. Predictors of greater increases in PASP included worse left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function, pulmonary function, and renal function. Increases in PASP were associated with concomitant increases in measures of LV filling pressure, including E/e' ratio and left atrial volume index. Each 5 mm Hg increase was associated with 16% higher odds of developing dyspnea (OR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.07-1.27; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Pulmonary pressure increased over 6.5 years in late life, was associated with concomitant increases in LV filling pressure, and predicted the development of dyspnea. Interventions targeting LV diastolic function may be effective at mitigating age-related increases in PASP.

Association of Atrial Fibrillation With Stroke and Dementia Accounting for Left Atrial Function and Size.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with higher risks of ischemic stroke (IS) and dementia. Whether alterations in left atrial (LA) function or size-atrial myopathy-confound these associations remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine the association of prevalent and incident AF with ischemic stroke and dementia in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study, adjusting for LA function and size. METHODS: Participants at visit 5 (2011-2013) with echocardiographic LA function (reservoir, conduit, contractile strain, and emptying fraction) and size (maximal, minimal volume index) data, and without prevalent stroke or dementia were followed through 2019. For analysis, we used time-varying Cox regression. RESULTS: Among 5,458 participants (1,193 with AF, mean age of 76 years) in the stroke analysis and 5,461 participants (1,205 with AF, mean age of 75 years) in the dementia analysis, 209 participants developed ischemic stroke, and 773 developed dementia over 7.1 years (median). In a demographic and risk factor-adjusted model, AF was significantly associated with ischemic stroke (HR, 1.63; 95% CI: 1.11-2.37) and dementia (HR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.13-1.70). After additionally adjusting for LA reservoir strain, these associations were attenuated and no longer statistically significant (stroke [HR: 1.33, 95% CI: 0.88-2.00], dementia [HR: 1.15, 95% CI: 0.92-1.43]). Associations with ischemic stroke and dementia were also attenuated and not statistically significant after adjustment for LA contractile strain, emptying fraction, and minimal volume index. CONCLUSIONS: AF-ischemic stroke and AF-dementia associations were not statistically significant after adjusting for measures of atrial myopathy. This proof-of-concept analysis does not support AF as an independent risk factor for ischemic stroke and dementia.

Late-life plasma proteins associated with prevalent and incident frailty: A proteomic analysis.

Proteomic approaches have unique advantages in the identification of biological pathways that influence physical frailty, a multifactorial geriatric syndrome predictive of adverse health outcomes in older adults. To date, proteomic studies of frailty are scarce, and few evaluated prefrailty as a separate state or examined predictors of incident frailty. Using plasma proteins measured by 4955 SOMAmers in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Community study, we identified 134 and 179 proteins cross-sectionally associated with prefrailty and frailty, respectively, after Bonferroni correction (p < 1 × 10-5 ) among 3838 older adults aged ≥65 years, adjusting for demographic and physiologic factors and chronic diseases. Among them, 23 (17%) and 82 (46%) were replicated in the Cardiovascular Health Study using the same models (FDR p < 0.05). Notably, higher odds of prefrailty and frailty were observed with higher levels of growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15; pprefrailty = 1 × 10-15 , pfrailty = 2 × 10-19 ), transgelin (TAGLN; pprefrailty = 2 × 10-12 , pfrailty = 6 × 10-22 ), and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 2 (IGFBP2; pprefrailty = 5 × 10-15 , pfrailty = 1 × 10-15 ) and with a lower level of growth hormone receptor (GHR, pprefrailty = 3 × 10-16 , pfrailty = 2 × 10-18 ). Longitudinally, we identified 4 proteins associated with incident frailty (p < 1 × 10-5 ). Higher levels of triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 1 (TREM1), TAGLN, and heart and adipocyte fatty-acid binding proteins predicted incident frailty. Differentially regulated proteins were enriched in pathways and upstream regulators related to lipid metabolism, angiogenesis, inflammation, and cell senescence. Our findings provide a set of plasma proteins and biological mechanisms that were dysregulated in both the prodromal and the clinical stage of frailty, offering new insights into frailty etiology and targets for intervention.

MMP-2 Associates With Incident Heart Failure and Atrial Fibrillation: The ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: MMP (matrix metalloproteinase)-2 participates in extracellular matrix regulation and may be involved in heart failure (HF), atrial fibrillation (AF), and coronary heart disease. METHODS: Among the 4693 ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) participants (mean age, 75±5 years; 42% women) without prevalent HF, multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate associations of plasma MMP-2 levels with incident HF, HF with preserved ejection fraction (≥50%), HF with reduced ejection fraction (<50%), AF, and coronary heart disease. Mediation of the association between MMP-2 and HF was assessed by censoring participants who developed AF or coronary heart disease before HF. Multivariable linear regression models were used to assess associations of MMP-2 with measures of left ventricular and left atrial structure and function. RESULTS: Compared with the 3 lower quartiles, the highest MMP-2 quartile associated with greater risk of incident HF overall (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.21-1.81]), incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (1.44 [95% CI, 1.07-1.94]), incident heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (1.48 [95% CI, 1.08-2.02]), and incident AF (1.44 [95% CI, 1.18-1.77]) but not incident coronary heart disease (0.97 [95% CI, 0.71-1.34]). Censoring AF attenuated the MMP-2 association with HF with preserved ejection fraction. Higher plasma MMP-2 levels were associated with larger left ventricular end-diastolic volume index, greater left ventricular mass index, higher E/e' ratio, larger left atrial volume index, and worse left atrial reservoir and contractile strains (all P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Higher plasma MMP-2 levels associate with diastolic dysfunction, left atrial dysfunction, and a higher risk of incident HF and AF. AF is a mediator of MMP-2-associated HF with preserved ejection fraction risk.

Circulating neutrophil-related proteins associate with incident heart failure and cardiac dysfunction: The ARIC study.

AIMS: Neutrophil activity contributes to adverse cardiac remodelling in experimental acute cardiac injury and is modifiable with pharmacologic agents like colchicine. METHODS AND RESULTS: Neutrophil activity-related plasma proteins known to be affected by colchicine treatment were measured at Visit 3 (1993-1995) and Visit 5 (2011-2013) of the ARIC cohort study. A protein-based neutrophil activity score was derived from 10 candidate proteins using LASSO Cox regression. Associations with incident heart failure (HF) and with cardiac function using Cox proportional hazards regression and linear regression models, respectively. The mean ages at Visits 3 and 5 were 60 ± 6 and 75 ± 5 years, respectively, and 54% and 57% were women, respectively. Each 1-standard deviation increase in the neutrophil activity score was associated with a higher risk of incident HF in mid-life (hazard ratio [HR] 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25-1.37) and late-life (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.14-1.34), with a higher HR for HF with preserved than reduced ejection fraction (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.16-1.47 vs. HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.98-1.30). Higher neutrophil activity was associated with greater left ventricular end-diastolic volume index, mass index and diastolic and systolic dysfunction. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma proteins related to neutrophil function associate with incident HF in mid- and late-life and with adverse cardiac remodelling. Therapies that modify these proteins, such as colchicine, may represent promising targets for the prevention or treatment of HF.

Bidirectional Association Between Frailty and Cardiac Structure and Function: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

Background Frailty and heart failure frequently coexist in late life. Limited data exist regarding the longitudinal associations of frailty and subclinical cardiac dysfunction. We aim to quantify the association of frailty with longitudinal changes in cardiac function and of cardiac function with progression in frailty status in older adults. Methods and Results Participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort underwent frailty assessments at Visit 5 (V5; 2011-2013), V6 (2016-2017), and V7 (2018-2019), and echocardiographic assessments at V5 and V7. We assessed the association between frailty status at V5 and changes in frailty status from V5 to V7 and changes in cardiac function over 6 years. We then evaluated the association of cardiac function measured at Visit 5 with progression in frailty status over 4 years. Multivariable regression models adjusted for demographics and comorbidities. Among 2574 participants free of heart failure at V5 and V7 (age 74±4 years at V5 and 81±4 years at V7), 3% (n=83) were frail. Frailty at V5 was associated with greater left atrial volume index and E/e' ratio at V5 and 7. Participants who transitioned from robust at V5 to frail at V7 demonstrated greater increases in left ventricular mass index, left atrial volume index, and E/e' over the same period. Among 1648 robust participants at Visit 5, greater left ventricular mass index and mean wall thickness, lower tissue Doppler imaging e', and higher E/e' ratio at Visit 5 were associated with progression in frailty status. Conclusions Among robust, older adults free of heart failure, progression in frailty and subclinical left ventricular remodeling and diastolic dysfunction are interrelated.

Association of interleukin-6 and interleukin-18 with cardiovascular disease in older adults: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

AIMS: Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and interleukin-18 (IL-18), important cytokines implicated in atherosclerosis and inflammaging, were assessed for associations with global cardiovascular disease (CVD), atrial fibrillation (AF), and death in older adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants from Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study Visit 5 (mean age 75.4 ± 5.1 years) with IL-6 and IL-18 measurements were included (n = 5672). Cox regression models were used to assess associations of IL-6 and IL-18 with coronary heart disease (CHD), ischaemic stroke, heart failure (HF) hospitalization, global CVD (composite of CHD, stroke, and HF), AF, and all-cause death. Over a median follow-up of 7.2 years, there were 1235 global CVD events, 530 AF events, and 1173 deaths. Higher IL-6 [hazard ratio (HR) 1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.44-1.72 per log unit increase] and IL-18 (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.01-1.26) were significantly associated with global CVD after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. Association between IL-6 and global CVD remained significant after further adjustment for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) but was no longer significant for IL-18 after further adjustments. Interleukin-6 was also associated with increased risk for CHD, HF, and AF after adjustment for covariates. Both IL-6 and IL-18 were associated with increased risk for all-cause death independent of cardiovascular risk factors and other biomarkers. CONCLUSION: Among older adults, both IL-6 and IL-18 were associated with global CVD and death. The association between IL-6 with CVD appears to be more robust and was independent of hs-CRP, NT-proBNP, and hs-TnT.

In older adults in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (average age 75 years), higher levels of interleukin-6 and interleukin-18, two proteins implicated in atherosclerosis and increased inflammation that occurs with ageing, significantly increased risk for global cardiovascular disease (including coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure) during the next ∼7 years; interleukin-6 also increased risk for global cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation even after adjustment for other biomarkers of inflammation and subclinical myocardial injury, and both interleukin-6 and interleukin-18 were associated with increased risk for all-cause death independent of cardiovascular risk factors and other biomarkers. In older adults, higher levels of interleukin-6 and interleukin-18 were both associated with increased risk for global cardiovascular disease (including coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure) and death.The association between interleukin-6 and global cardiovascular disease appeared to be stronger than that for interleukin-18 and remained significant after adjustment for other biomarkers of inflammation and subclinical myocardial injury.